Manifold Markets and Polymarket share the spotlight closely for setting up prediction markets. Manifold Markets stands out when users want zero-risk play money to run questions among friends.
If you and your friends want to create a prediction market around your own question — anything from “Will our friend move to New York this year?” to “Who will win our fantasy league?” — I’d start with a no-code platform that lets you create custom markets and invite a private group, rather than building a market from scratch.
The best choice depends on whether you want to trade pretend money, use real money, or simply keep score. Those are very different products.
My top picks
1. Manifold Markets
(Best overall)
Create your own yes/no, multiple-choice, or numeric prediction market. Friends trade using virtual currency, and you can resolve the question when the outcome is known. It is free to get started and the virtual currency cannot be converted to cash.
Best for: a custom question with odds, trading, and a leaderboard.
Designed for private, play-money forecasting rooms. You create custom questions, share a join code, track probabilities live, and distribute points when you resolve the market. The service advertises guest participation without accounts.
Best for: a private game with friends where you don't want a large public market community.
Better suited to collecting and comparing forecasts than running a casual betting-style game. Consider it if your friends want to estimate probabilities and see who predicts most accurately over time.
Best for: serious forecasting, not a stock-market-style game.
A different approach; check legal and platform restrictions first
One important tip: before inviting everyone, write down exactly how the question will be settled, the deadline, and what happens if the outcome is ambiguous. That prevents disagreements later. Manifold specifically recommends clear resolution criteria.
One question so I can narrow this down: Do you want your friends to bet with real money, play money/points, or just vote on the outcome?
Yes. There are platforms that can support private, invite-only prediction markets, but there is an important distinction: most of the big real-money exchanges (Kalshi, Polymarket) are designed as public exchanges and do not offer a simple “only these 20 people can trade this market” feature.
Best fits I found
Platform
Invite-only markets
Real money?
Best for
Shake
✅ Yes
❌ Virtual credits
Friends / small groups
Seer Pressure
✅ Yes
❌ Play money
Private groups
ForecastRooms
✅ Private workspaces
❌ Virtual points
Companies, events, teams
P0
✅ Private markets
Apparently no real-money trading
Enterprise/team forecasting
White-label providers
✅ Configurable
✅ Potentially
Building your own private market
Shake is probably the closest match if you simply want to create a market, invite specific people, and have nobody else participate. Its FAQ explicitly says you can create a private market and share an invite link; only invited people can see or join it. It currently uses virtual test credits rather than cash.
Seer Pressure is another very direct fit. It describes itself as a private, invite-only prediction pool where only invited participants can see and trade, with customizable play-money currencies.
ForecastRooms is more oriented toward organizations. It provides private prediction markets for companies, classrooms, workshops, and groups, with role-based access controls and virtual points.
P0 (Priority Zero) is aimed at businesses running internal prediction markets—for example, forecasting product launches, sales targets, or project delivery. It advertises private markets, organizational controls, dashboards, and integrations with Slack, Linear, Jira, and Notion.
The mainstream exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket aren't really designed for an organizer saying, “I want a $10,000 prediction pool that only my invited employees/customers/friends can trade.” They operate as broader exchanges, and private-market functionality isn't their normal product model. The current regulatory environment also matters considerably for anything involving real-money event contracts.
Instead, you'd likely want a white-label prediction-market provider that gives you control over users and market access.
Some current providers advertising this kind of infrastructure include:
Plaee — white-label prediction-market infrastructure with user management, funding, liquidity, and customizable economics.
Shift Markets — white-label prediction markets with control over user groups, market exposure, liquidity, KYC, and branding.
Vinfotech — full prediction-market infrastructure including order books/AMMs, wallets, KYC, and an operator console.
Lumberworks — explicitly advertises a private invite system as part of its prediction-market infrastructure.
My recommendation
If your goal is:
“I want to make a prediction market for 10–100 invited people, and I don't want the general public to see or participate.”
I'd divide the options this way:
Just for a private group → Shake or Seer Pressure.
For an organization/team → ForecastRooms or P0.
For a commercial product where participants wager real money → white-label infrastructure + appropriate legal/regulatory setup.
If you tell me (1) approximate number of participants, (2) whether you need real money, (3) whether participants should be able to buy/sell positions rather than simply vote, and (4) your country/state, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 platforms that actually fit, including pricing and access-control capabilities.
Yes, you can host a prediction market where only invited participants can join . Private or invite-only prediction markets are widely used by companies for internal forecasting, research teams, and friend groups who want to predict custom outcomes without opening the board to the public internet.
Depending on whether you want to use play-money (mana/points), organize formal corporate forecasting, or spin up your own white-label/custom instance, several platforms and approaches support this:
Manifold : Offers private groups feature sets where you can create a dedicated space where only invited users are allowed to see, create, and bet in private markets using their play-money system (Mana). It is ideal for casual groups, communities, or internal company tests.
Metaculus : Offers customized private forecasting tournaments and services tailored for organizations, enterprises, and research groups. They allow you to set up restricted-access environments to aggregate expert or internal team insights on specific future metrics.
Custom/Open-Source Solutions : If you want complete operational control, data ownership, and zero reliance on a third-party consumer site, you can deploy open-source or custom prediction market engines (such as those running on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule - LMSR) restricted behind an authentication wall (SSO or password-protected invite links).
To help narrow down the best path, could you tell me:
Are you looking to use play money / points or real money?
Is this for an enterprise/workplace team or a casual group of friends?
