Kalshi and Polymarket run nearly even across prediction market queries, with Kalshi favored for regulated contracts on economic data and pop culture while Polymarket draws users for crypto-based wagers. Polymarket serves as the usual answer for traders wanting to bet on tech earnings targets or protocol milestones.
Since July, Metaculusrising and Solanarising are named regularly for private market setup and token selection. Meanwhile, USD Coinfalling slipped from the most named position on decentralized betting tokens.
Latest insights
Week of Sep 21–27 · Since Jul 5
Robinhood Gap between platforms: Robinhood's Mentioned in is higher on Google AI Mode than on ChatGPT Search in Prediction Market Betting Platforms: 12.9% vs 6.6%
Robinhood Slipping: Robinhood left the Prediction Market Betting Platforms top ten, now #17
DraftKings Gaining: DraftKings now ranks #7 in Prediction Market Betting Platforms, up from #8
Manifold Markets Slipping: Manifold MarketsAzuro Protocol moved ahead of Manifold Markets in Prediction Market Betting Platforms
Azuro Protocol Gaining: Azuro Protocol moved ahead of Manifold Markets in Prediction Market Betting Platforms
24% of citations point at the ranked brands’ own sites. reuters.com, si.com, foxsports.com are the most-cited sites outside the ranked brands’ own domains.
These platforms are regulated federally as financial exchanges rather than sportsbooks. Below are the primary legal avenues available for U.S. residents:[]()
Brokerage Integration Partners (e.g., Robinhood, Interactive Brokers) : Following legal clearances for election futures, some mainstream financial brokerages have integrated access to event contracts (such as through ForecastEx partnerships), allowing eligible retail investors to trade political outcome contracts directly through their brokerage accounts.[](https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-bet-on-the-2024-presidential-election-8737733)
If you want to bet on who will win the next U.S. presidential election, the key issue is which platforms are legally available in your state. Election betting can be regulated differently from ordinary sports betting, and a platform operating legally in one state may not be available in another.
Since you're asking about the U.S., the main distinction is between regulated prediction markets, which offer contracts tied to election outcomes, and traditional sportsbooks, which generally operate under state gambling laws.
Where to check
Here are the main platforms and legal resources to investigate:
Kalshi
An event-contract exchange that has offered political-outcome markets. However, New York sued Kalshi in July 2026 over its prediction-market operations, so don't assume its election contracts are legal for New York residents.
Another prediction-market platform. New York sued its U.S. operation in September 2026, alleging it was running an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation. Check the current legal status before depositing money.
New York's attorney general has challenged both Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026, disputing their ability to offer these markets without state gambling authorization. That means you should not treat a platform's availability or its claim of federal regulation as proof that election betting is lawful for you.
Which state will you be placing the bet from? If it's New York, I can narrow this down to the current legal position and whether any platform offers a lawful way to wager on the presidential winner.
If you're looking to bet on a U.S. presidential election, the key distinction is between a federally regulated prediction market and a platform that is legally authorized to offer election wagering under your state's laws. Those aren't necessarily the same thing.
As of October 14, 2026, there are platforms offering political event contracts in the United States, but the legality of betting on an election depends on the specific state law and the type of contract. The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) reports that at least 32 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands have laws restricting election betting in some circumstances.
Platforms to know about
Kalshi
Offers event contracts on political outcomes through a federally regulated exchange. However, federal regulation alone does not resolve every state-law question about election wagering.
Offers markets on political events, but access and legal status depend on the specific product, location, and applicable restrictions. Do not assume every Polymarket website or product has the same regulatory status.
Texas Penal Code § 47.02(a)(2) expressly prohibits betting on the result of a political nomination, appointment, or election, or on a candidate's degree of success. The offense is generally a Class C misdemeanor.
That creates a significant legal concern for someone in Texas considering a contract on who will win a presidential election. The fact that a platform accepts Texas users does not establish that the particular wager is lawful for the customer.
In which state will you be physically located when placing the bet?
If it's Texas, I'll focus on the distinction between platforms that offer presidential-election contracts and whether a Texas resident can legally trade those specific contracts, rather than simply listing sites that accept deposits.
The primary platforms recognized for operating under formal federal regulatory supervision or approved compliance structures include:
(Note: While decentralized or offshore alternatives like Polymarket command significant market volume, they generally operate outside of direct U.S. regulatory frameworks or utilize restricted dual-structure access, making federally overseen venues like Kalshi the primary answer for strict domestic regulatory alignment.) [](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13187)
If you'd like to narrow this down, please let me know:
I can help clarify which compliant platforms support those categories.
If you're looking for prediction-market betting sites with strong legal and regulatory oversight, the best starting point is platforms that operate through regulated exchanges, register with financial regulators, and have formal rules for market surveillance and customer protection.
In the United States, the key regulator to look for is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). CFTC-designated contract markets must meet regulatory requirements and monitor trading for misconduct, including manipulation and insider trading.
One important caveat: being federally regulated does not mean every market offered is free of legal disputes. Sports and election contracts, in particular, remain the subject of litigation over the boundary between federal financial regulation and state gambling laws.
Prediction-market platforms worth considering
1. Kalshi
(CFTC-regulated exchange)
One of the clearest choices for U.S. users prioritizing formal regulation. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, has exchange rules and compliance controls, and restricts certain categories of harmful event contracts. Its sports-related offerings nevertheless face ongoing legal challenges in some states.
What you’re looking for is called a prediction market — a platform where you can buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of political events, such as elections, congressional control, legislation passing, or a government policy decision.
Rather than buying actual company shares, you trade contracts whose value depends on whether a particular event happens. Prices often move with traders’ expectations, and you may be able to sell a position before the event is resolved.
Two platforms to look at
Kalshi
A U.S.-based event-trading exchange offering contracts on political and election-related outcomes, alongside economic and other events. It operates as a federally regulated exchange, but its ability to offer particular markets is subject to ongoing legal disputes in some states.
A prediction market platform known for political events, elections, and geopolitical developments. It uses cryptocurrency-based trading for many markets, and access to real-money trading depends on your jurisdiction and the specific service available to you.
For example, imagine a contract asking, “Will Party X win control of the Senate?”
Buy Yes at $0.40: You pay 40 cents per contract.
If Yes resolves as correct: The contract pays $1, giving you a 60-cent gross profit.
If No resolves as correct: Your Yes contract pays $0, and you lose the 40 cents.
Sell early: If the contract price rises to $0.65, you could sell for a 25-cent gross profit instead of waiting for the result, subject to liquidity and fees.
These are illustrative prices, not live market quotes.
One important caveat: If you're trading from New York, check the current legal status and market availability before depositing money. New York sued Kalshi in July 2026, alleging that its platform violates state gambling laws, and the dispute remains part of a wider regulatory battle.
Are you looking to trade with real money, or are you mainly interested in tracking political markets and their implied probabilities? I can tailor the options to that.
Trading "shares" or contracts on the outcomes of political events happens on prediction markets (also called event contracts or binary options exchanges). You buy a contract (often priced between 1¢ and 99¢) that pays out $1 if your predicted outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.
The primary regulated platforms where you can trade political event outcomes in the United States include:
Yes, these are known as prediction markets or event contract markets . They operate very much like a stock market: you buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares of a specific outcome (e.g., "Will Candidate X win the Senate race?"), and the share prices fluctuate between $0.01 and $1.00 based on supply, demand, and the implied probability of the event happening . If you are right when the market resolves, your shares pay out $1.00 each; if you're wrong, they expire worthless.[](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/prediction-markets-push-into-us-stocks-raises-regulatory-alarm-bells-2026-09-28/)
The primary platforms where you can trade on political outcomes include:
Kalshi : A federally regulated financial exchange regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) where U.S. users can legally trade event contracts on U.S. elections, control of Congress, and other real-world political and economic outcomes. (Popular mainstream brokerages like Robinhood also offer integrated access to political and event contracts via partnerships with regulated exchanges like Kalshi).[]()
For long-term political forecasting and betting on future events like the 2028 presidential election, prediction markets are the primary platforms. These operate like stock exchanges where you buy and sell shares based on the probability of an event occurring, and those shares pay out $1 if correct.[](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028)
The top platforms available for long-term political contracts include:
Polymarket : A massive crypto-based decentralized prediction market that features extensive long-term boards, including the Presidential Election Winner 2028 and individual party nominee markets. (Note: Generally utilizes USDC/crypto rails and has geographic restrictions depending on local regulations). [](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[2]()]()
My top pick is Polymarket if you want a crypto-based prediction market covering a wide range of real-world events, rather than just Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices.
It stands out for its breadth of markets, crypto funding, and transparent on-chain trading. You can find markets about politics, economics, sports, technology, geopolitics, and pop culture.
One important caveat: if you're in the United States, use the U.S. version rather than the international site. Polymarket operates separate platforms with different access rules. Its international platform prohibits U.S. users, while Polymarket US is the federally regulated exchange.
Best options compared
1. Polymarket — best overall breadth
(Top pick)
Broad international markets spanning politics, crypto, sports, finance, tech, weather, and culture. The international platform uses blockchain-based trading and USDC collateral.
Best for: variety and crypto-native trading, where legally available.
A smaller on-chain prediction-market option associated with the Base ecosystem. Worth comparing if you prefer crypto-oriented markets, but check current market variety, liquidity, and withdrawal conditions before depositing.
Best for: exploring an alternative to the largest platform.
A regulated event-contract exchange with markets across politics, economics, sports, and entertainment. It's not primarily a crypto-native platform, but it's a useful comparison if you value regulated access over on-chain settlement.
Best for: users prioritizing a regulated U.S. exchange.
Want the widest range of topics? Start by exploring Polymarket's market listings.
Want to trade from the U.S.? Check Polymarket US first; its available market selection differs from the international platform.
Want to deposit crypto and trade on-chain? Compare supported tokens, transaction costs, liquidity, and withdrawal rules before choosing.
Keep in mind that prediction-market shares can lose their entire value, and a market's displayed probability is not a guarantee. Polymarket's fees also vary by market category and order type.
One question that would help me narrow this down: Is your priority to use crypto directly, or simply to have the widest possible selection of things to bet on?
When it comes to crypto-based prediction markets covering a massive and diverse array of topics—ranging from politics and global economics to pop culture, tech milestones, and crypto prices—Polymarket stands out as the clear industry leader.[](https://polymarket.com/crypto)
Here is a quick look at why it leads, along with a few other notable platforms:
Polymarket : Widely considered the dominant decentralized prediction market. It runs on the Polygon blockchain, uses USDC for trading, and features hundreds of active markets spanning geopolitics, macroeconomics, current events, science, and pop culture. It boasts the highest liquidity and depth of any crypto-native prediction platform.[](https://polymarket.com/crypto)
Can you recommend a decentralized prediction platform that supports wagering on a broad spectrum of categories with crypto?
If your main criteria are decentralization + crypto funding + a wide variety of prediction categories, Polymarket is the most directly aligned option I found.
Broad coverage: markets span crypto, sports, politics, economics, technology, culture, and other event categories. Its crypto section alone currently lists hundreds of markets.
Crypto-native settlement: its international platform uses USDC, with event shares settling at $1 for the winning outcome.
On-chain/non-custodial structure: Polymarket's international product operates separately from its U.S. entity; the international platform is not CFTC-regulated.
Important caveat: legal availability varies substantially by jurisdiction. is currently facing regulatory litigation in New York, so you should check whether the particular platform/product is permitted where you live.
Kalshi — its Culture section explicitly includes Movies, Music, Awards, Television, People, and Video Games. It currently lists markets such as Oscar categories and entertainment-related events.
Polymarket — its U.S. exchange says it offers contracts covering sports and entertainment, and it has previously had markets around events such as the Grammys.
What I'd use for entertainment specifically
Kalshi looks like the easiest starting point because it has a dedicated Culture → Awards category and currently displays Oscar and other entertainment contracts directly.
For example, Kalshi has offered contracts on:
Oscar Best Picture
Oscar Best Actor
Oscar nominees
Dancing with the Stars outcomes
Music/album-related outcomes
TV and movie outcomes
Important: these aren't ordinary sportsbook bets. They're event contracts whose prices represent the market's implied probability; on Polymarket US, for example, a contract trading at $0.70 corresponds roughly to a 70% market probability and pays $1 if the specified outcome occurs.
If you're in the U.S., availability can also depend on your jurisdiction and the particular platform. Polymarket US says it is federally regulated by the CFTC but currently isn't available for trading in Nevada.
If you tell me which awards/events you're interested in (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys, Golden Globes, Tonys, etc.), I can search the current markets and give you a list of what's actually tradeable right now, including liquidity/volume.
The primary platforms featuring active entertainment and pop-culture event markets include:
Kalshi : A federally regulated financial exchange where you can trade event contracts on entertainment outcomes. They host recurring markets centered around pop culture milestones, award shows (like early frontrunners for the Oscars or major film categories), and entertainment releases (such as Rotten Tomatoes critic scores or runway models at upcoming fashion events).[](]()]()
– Generally considered the leader for the sheer breadth of its pop culture catalog. It frequently hosts dedicated markets spanning major award shows, box office milestones, streaming numbers, music charts, and specific celebrity or internet culture trackers (like Taylor Swift or MrBeast milestones). It operates on crypto/crypto-adjacent rails globally.[]()
The top platforms for entertainment and novelty wagering include:
Kalshi – One of the top legal prediction markets operating in the U.S. that actively lists contracts and odds for major entertainment events like the Academy Awards (including Best Picture, Actor, Actress, and Director categories). Because it's a federally regulated financial exchange, it is widely accessible in the U.S. for event contracts.[](]()]()
For betting on who will win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars, I'd start by comparing Kalshi and . Both offer prediction markets for entertainment and pop culture, including Oscar outcomes, rather than just traditional sports betting.
I want to bet on the outcome of a reality TV show finale. Where can I find those markets?
If you and your friends want to create a prediction market around your own question — anything from “Will our friend move to New York this year?” to “Who will win our fantasy league?” — I’d start with a no-code platform that lets you create custom markets and invite a private group, rather than building a market from scratch.
The best choice depends on whether you want to trade pretend money, use real money, or simply keep score. Those are very different products.
My top picks
1. Manifold Markets
(Best overall)
Create your own yes/no, multiple-choice, or numeric prediction market. Friends trade using virtual currency, and you can resolve the question when the outcome is known. It is free to get started and the virtual currency cannot be converted to cash.
Best for: a custom question with odds, trading, and a leaderboard.
Designed for private, play-money forecasting rooms. You create custom questions, share a join code, track probabilities live, and distribute points when you resolve the market. The service advertises guest participation without accounts.
Best for: a private game with friends where you don't want a large public market community.
Better suited to collecting and comparing forecasts than running a casual betting-style game. Consider it if your friends want to estimate probabilities and see who predicts most accurately over time.
Best for: serious forecasting, not a stock-market-style game.
A different approach; check legal and platform restrictions first
One important tip: before inviting everyone, write down exactly how the question will be settled, the deadline, and what happens if the outcome is ambiguous. That prevents disagreements later. Manifold specifically recommends clear resolution criteria.
One question so I can narrow this down: Do you want your friends to bet with real money, play money/points, or just vote on the outcome?
Yes. There are platforms that can support private, invite-only prediction markets, but there is an important distinction: most of the big real-money exchanges (Kalshi, Polymarket) are designed as public exchanges and do not offer a simple “only these 20 people can trade this market” feature.
Yes, you can host a prediction market where only invited participants can join . Private or invite-only prediction markets are widely used by companies for internal forecasting, research teams, and friend groups who want to predict custom outcomes without opening the board to the public internet.[](]()](]()](]()](]()]()
Which prediction market platforms offer the ability to host invite-only events?
You’re looking for event-based prediction markets — platforms where people trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, rather than betting on a traditional sports game.
Examples include:
Economic data: Will the US inflation rate exceed 3%? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its next meeting?
Politics and world events: Who will win an election? Will a proposed policy pass by a certain date?
Celebrity news and entertainment: Will a celebrity announce a new project, win an award, or make a public appearance before a deadline?
Business and technology: Will a company announce a product, hit a revenue target, or complete a deal?
The important distinction is that some platforms offer regulated event contracts, while others offer crypto-based prediction markets or conventional betting products. What you can access depends on your location, the specific market, and applicable laws.
Where to place these bets
Kalshi
A strong starting point for US users interested in economic releases, Federal Reserve decisions, politics, and increasingly entertainment-related outcomes.
Website:
Polymarket
Known for markets on politics, economic developments, public figures, and trending news. Available markets and access rules vary by country and product.
Website:
These are starting points rather than guarantees that every event or product is available to you. Check the current eligibility rules and applicable fees before funding an account. The CFTC explains how regulated event contracts work and what protections to look for.
How a prediction-market bet works
Imagine a market asking: “Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its next meeting?”
Will rates be cut?
(Example only)
Buy YES
$0.35
35¢ per contract
Buy NO
$0.68
68¢ per contract
Illustrative prices; real prices change and may include a spread or fees.
If you buy 10 YES contracts at $0.35 each:
Initial cost: $3.50
If YES wins and each contract pays $1: $10 payout, or $6.50 profit before fees.
If YES loses: $3.50 loss.
In a simple binary contract, the market price roughly reflects traders' implied probability of an outcome. It is not a guarantee that the market's forecast is correct.
How to get started
Visit a platform and confirm it accepts users in your state or country.
Browse the economic, politics, business, or entertainment categories.
Read the exact event wording, deadline, and settlement rules. A rumor, announcement, or official confirmation may count differently depending on the contract.
Check the price, trading fees, liquidity, and maximum possible loss.
Start small, and never risk money needed for bills or savings.
Celebrity-news markets deserve extra caution: rumors can be unreliable, and markets tied to private information or unverified claims can carry additional ethical and legal concerns.
Binary Contracts: Every event is structured as a yes/no question (e.g., "Will the Fed cut interest rates in May?" or "Will Taylor Swift announce a new album this month?").[](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/guides)
Payouts: If you buy a "Yes" contract for 40¢ and the event happens, it resolves to $1.00, netting you a 60¢ profit per share. If it doesn’t happen, it resolves to 0¢ and you lose your stake. You can also sell your shares at any time before the market closes as odds shift.[](]()]()
Popular Platforms
Depending on what you want to bet on and your location, different platforms specialize in these areas:
: Operating heavily in the global crypto-backed prediction space, is the largest venue for . Markets range from celebrity engagements and pregnancy announcements to awards show winners (like the Golden Globes) and music drop dates.[](]()](]()]()
Basic Strategy & Risk Management
Treat Prices Like Math: If a contract costs 70¢, you are risking 70¢ to make 30¢. Ask yourself if the true probability is higher or lower than 70%.
Mind the Resolution Rules: Always read the specific "resolution source" for a market. For economic data, it might specify a tie to a specific government feed like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For celebrity news, it will outline what constitutes official confirmation (e.g., a rep's statement vs. a tabloid rumor).
If you’re new to prediction markets in the U.S., the main platforms worth comparing are Kalshi and Polymarket, with some brokerages now offering event contracts too.
Kalshi
Kalshi is probably the more straightforward place to start if you want a conventional, regulated-market experience. It lets you trade contracts on events such as economic data, politics, weather, sports, and other outcomes; a winning contract generally pays $1.
Regulatory structure: operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, although its legal status and availability for particular event categories are currently being litigated in several states.
For betting on crypto-specific outcomes like Ethereum transaction fees, whether a new L2 will gain traction, or whether a protocol will hit a TVL or adoption target, I'd start with Polymarket and compare it with smaller, more crypto-native venues.
The important distinction is that the biggest prediction market isn't necessarily the best for protocol research. You want a platform with markets that cover the exact metric you're forecasting, enough liquidity to trade at a fair price, and clear rules for deciding who wins.
A 2026 comparison by The Block ranks Polymarket as its best overall prediction market, while identifying Kalshi as a leading option for US users.
Best platforms to consider
1. Polymarket
(Best overall starting point)
Best for broad market selection, crypto-related events, and trading liquidity. It uses USDC and blockchain-based trading for its international platform. Whether niche protocol metrics are actually listed varies by market.
Website:
2. Limitless
(Worth exploring for crypto-native markets)
An on-chain venue built on Base, with a focus on short-duration markets and market creation. It may be more interesting if you want to explore markets beyond the biggest mainstream events, although you should check whether the specific protocol or fee metric you want is available.
Website:
3. Drift BET
Best if you already trade on Solana and value on-chain execution. It offers YES/NO event contracts integrated into Drift. Its usefulness for your purposes depends on the available market catalog and liquidity for individual contracts.
Website:
4. Kalshi
Best to investigate if regulated US access is your priority. It is a CFTC-regulated exchange, but I would not assume it lists specialized questions about gas fees or an individual protocol's adoption.
Website:
Which one fits your specific bets?
What you want to predict
My starting point
ETH gas fees above a specific threshold
Polymarket; search for an exact metric and time window
A new protocol reaches a TVL target
Polymarket, then check smaller on-chain venues
A new L2 gains users or transaction share
Search existing markets first; these can be hard to find
A protocol launch succeeds or fails
Look for a precisely defined milestone, not a vague success question
Create a custom market about a niche protocol
Investigate and other market-creation platforms
One important caveat: I haven't verified a live market for each of these examples. A platform can be excellent overall yet have no tradable contract for a particular protocol metric.
What matters most for these bets
Resolution rules: For transaction fees, does the market use average fees, median fees, total fees, or a particular dashboard?
Liquidity: Can you enter and exit a position without moving the price significantly?
Oracle and data source: Is the outcome determined by a reliable, publicly accessible source?
Fees and spread: Small pricing advantages can disappear when you trade frequently.
Access and custody: Check current geographic eligibility, smart-contract risks, and withdrawal mechanics before depositing.
For US residents, pay particular attention to geographic restrictions. Polymarket International explicitly excludes US users; its separate US exchange has different access and trading arrangements. Don't use a VPN to bypass restrictions.
One question so I can narrow this down
Are you primarily looking to bet on existing markets, or do you want a platform where you can create or trade very niche markets about protocol adoption, gas fees, TVL, and on-chain activity?
That distinction matters more than the overall platform rankings for the kind of crypto forecasting you're describing.
Polymarket is the best overall crypto prediction market for wagering on specific on-chain metrics like transaction fees, protocol upgrades, and ecosystem milestones due to its deep liquidity, extensive crypto-native market variety, and stablecoin settlement.
Top Crypto Prediction Platforms for Niche & Protocol Bets
If your priorities are (1) maximum liquidity and (2) minimum fees, my pick right now is Kalshi for U.S. users, with Polymarket as the main alternative.
My ranking
Platform
Liquidity
Fees
Best for
Kalshi
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Overall / U.S. trading
Polymarket
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lowest fees / politics & global events
Robinhood
⭐⭐⭐⭐
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Convenience + very low commissions
Interactive Brokers / ForecastEx
⭐⭐⭐
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Traditional brokerage users
Why Kalshi wins overall: Current data shows Kalshi with roughly 78% of tracked prediction-market volume over the latest 30-day period, versus about 5% for international Polymarket and 12% for Polymarket US. Kalshi also had about $1.2B in open interest, which is a useful indication of the amount of capital currently committed to positions.
That doesn't mean every individual Kalshi market is more liquid—the specific contract matters enormously. For large trades, I'd compare the actual order book and expected slippage rather than simply looking at platform-wide volume.
Fees are more interesting
Kalshi: Its standard fee formula is roughly:
fee = 0.07 × contracts × P × (1-P)
where P is the contract price. Resting orders generally aren't charged the standard trading fee, although certain markets have maker fees.
Polymarket: Taker fees vary by category, currently around 4–7% of the probability-weighted component, while makers pay 0% and can receive rebates. Geopolitical/world-event markets are fee-free.
So if you're a maker who posts limit orders, Polymarket can be exceptionally attractive. If you're primarily taking liquidity, the difference depends heavily on the contract's price and category.
Robinhood is surprisingly competitive: its commission is now probability-weighted and capped at $0.01 per contract, with Gold users getting a lower rate. However, exchange fees can be added on top.
One important caveat for you in New York
Polymarket's international site currently blocks U.S. trading and directs U.S. users to Polymarket US. polymarket.com Polymarket US is substantially newer/smaller than the international venue, so you shouldn't assume that the enormous global Polymarket liquidity is available to you.
There is also active regulatory litigation around prediction markets in the U.S. A September 2026 federal appeals-court ruling held that Ohio and Tennessee could regulate Kalshi under state gambling laws, creating additional uncertainty around state-by-state access.
Bottom line
If I were choosing based strictly on your criteria:
🥇 Kalshi — best combination of liquidity + low enough fees + U.S. accessibility
🥈 Polymarket US — potentially better fee economics, but liquidity is currently much smaller
🥉 Robinhood — excellent if you already use Robinhood and value simplicity
One nuance: if you're trading $10k, $50k, or $100k+ positions, I would not choose purely by advertised fees. The effective cost of crossing the spread and moving the order book can dwarf the nominal commission.
If you tell me roughly how much you plan to trade per position (e.g. $500, $5k, $50k) and whether you're trading sports, politics, crypto, or economic events, I can compare the actual effective cost/liquidity of Kalshi vs. Polymarket for that use case.
A breakdown of how they compare on liquidity and fees helps determine the right fit:
Polymarket
Liquidity: The largest decentralized prediction market in the world. It dominates global volume for geopolitics, pop culture, and global world events, featuring massive order books and deep liquidity pools.
Fees: Exceptionally low. Geopolitical and world event markets are completely fee-free. For sports markets, it uses a probability-based taker fee peaking at just 0.75% at a 50/50 price point.
Access/Requirements: Operates on the Polygon blockchain, meaning you need cryptocurrency (USDC) to fund your account. (Note: Geoblocked for users in the United States unless using compliant workarounds, though regulations shift frequently).
Traditional Sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) : State-regulated commercial sportsbooks do not legally offer bets on US political elections. State gaming commissions and federal guidelines strictly prohibit sportsbooks from taking wagers on political outcomes.
Geographic Restrictions : Depending on where you reside, specific state regulations or ongoing litigation may temporarily impact your ability to register or trade on these platforms. Always check the specific platform's terms and local state restrictions before attempting to trade.[](https://www.cbssports.com/prediction/news/prediction-market-legal-states/)
A major derivatives exchange operator offering event contracts tied to sports, economic indicators, and other outcomes. CME operates designated contract markets under CFTC oversight and publishes exchange rules, contract specifications, and risk disclosures. You generally access its prediction markets through participating brokers rather than a standalone betting app.
Official site:
3. ForecastEx
(CFTC-regulated exchange)
A U.S. event-contract exchange affiliated with Interactive Brokers. ForecastEx is registered as a CFTC-designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, making it a strong candidate if formal financial-market oversight is your main priority.
Access:
4. Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
A regulated brokerage rather than a prediction exchange itself. It provides access to event contracts from Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx. It's worth considering if you prefer trading through a broader financial brokerage with established compliance and disclosure processes.
Official site:
What about Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prominent prediction-market brand, but don't assume that all versions of its platform have the same regulatory status. Its international crypto-based platform and U.S.-accessible regulated offerings can have different legal structures. Verify the specific entity, product, and applicable jurisdiction before depositing money. The CFTC's official exchange registry is a useful starting point.
Official site:
How to judge whether a platform is genuinely well regulated
Use this checklist before signing up:
Regulatory registration: Confirm the actual exchange or broker in the relevant regulator's official register.
Customer protections: Check identity verification, custody and segregation of customer funds, and complaint procedures.
Market integrity: Look for written rules against insider trading, manipulation, and trading on confidential information.
Legal availability: Check whether the specific contracts are permitted in your state or country.
Clear fees and settlement: Review trading fees, contract-resolution rules, and withdrawal terms.
The CFTC explains the protections and obligations associated with regulated event-contract markets in its official prediction-markets guide.
My practical shortlist: Start by comparing Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx. If you want one brokerage to access multiple exchanges, consider Interactive Brokers.
One important distinction: strict regulatory oversight does not guarantee profits, eliminate losses, or resolve every legal dispute.
OG.com — A newer CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that went live offering event contracts and odds tracking on political races, party nominees, and election outcomes.[](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/markets/politics/)
Polymarket : The world's largest decentralized prediction market, which handles massive global volume on political elections and geopolitical events. It operates using cryptocurrency (USDC) for settling and trading shares.
PredictIt : A long-running, academic-backed prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington that specifically focuses on political and economic forecasts, historically operating under a No-Action letter from the CFTC in the U.S.
Interactive Brokers : Offers forecast and event contracts on U.S. election outcomes and economic data releases directly through specialized partner exchanges for eligible investors.
Yes. What you’re describing is generally called a prediction market or event-contract exchange. Instead of buying shares in a company, you buy contracts tied to an outcome—e.g., “Candidate X wins Senate race Y.” The contract price moves as traders buy and sell, and a winning contract typically settles at $1.
The main ones
Kalshi — Probably the closest match to your “stock market for political races” description. It operates as an exchange where users trade against one another, and it currently offers election/event contracts.
Polymarket — A large prediction market with thousands of political markets, including elections and individual political questions. Its contracts are generally quoted from $0–$1 (or 0–100¢), representing the market-implied probability.
PredictIt — A political prediction market that has historically focused specifically on elections and political questions.
Iowa Electronic Markets — A university-run political/economic prediction market, generally intended more as an experimental/educational market than a full-scale trading venue.
How it works
Suppose a contract says:
“Candidate A wins the 2026 Senate race.”
If the YES contract is trading at $0.62, the market is effectively pricing the outcome at about 62%. If you buy 100 contracts for $62 and Candidate A wins, they settle for $100; if Candidate A loses, they settle for $0. You can also sell your position before the election rather than holding until settlement.
That's why these can feel much more like trading stocks/options than conventional sportsbook betting: there is an order book, prices fluctuate continuously, and you can potentially exit a position before the event.
One important caveat: the legal/regulatory situation is evolving rapidly in the U.S. Kalshi and Polymarket's U.S. operations operate under federal derivatives-market structures, while states and federal authorities continue to dispute how some event contracts should be regulated.
If you tell me what state you're in, I can also check which of these currently lets you trade U.S. House/Senate/governor races there and compare fees, minimums, liquidity, and available races.
PredictIt : A long-standing academic-backed prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington, specializing heavily in political and economic futures with capped individual stakes.
If you're in the U.S., the main platform to look at is kalshi.com. It currently lists long-dated 2028 U.S. presidential election contracts, including both the eventual winner and party winner.
Kalshi: Offers YES/NO event contracts on political outcomes. Its current 2028 presidential-winner market remains open until the outcome is determined, with settlement tied to the person inaugurated for the 2029–33 term.
polymarket.com: Also has 2028 election markets, but the international Polymarket site says trading is blocked for users in the U.S.; it directs U.S. users to Polymarket US.
One important distinction: these are prediction/event markets rather than conventional sportsbook bets. A contract's price represents the market's implied probability, and a winning contract generally settles at $1.
There is also an evolving U.S. legal/regulatory dispute over prediction markets, including state-level challenges to Kalshi, so availability can depend on your jurisdiction.
If you tell me your state, I can check which platforms currently accept users there and what 2028 contracts they offer.
Solana-Native Alternatives : Newer blockchain-specific entrants, such as Solana's native prediction ecosystems (like World ), have emerged to tap into faster speeds and lower transaction costs, though they generally still trail Polymarket in overall market diversity and total volume.[](https://polymarket.com/crypto)
Regulated Hybrid Platforms (Kalshi / Robinhood / Coinbase) : While not purely "crypto-based" in terms of using on-chain tokens, regulated platforms like Kalshi (which integrated nationwide with mainstream crypto and traditional brokerages like Coinbase and Robinhood) offer a massive legal alternative in the US for event contracts, though they operate strictly in fiat currency rather than Web3 stablecoins.[](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/want-private-market-access-kalshi-183500079.html)
If you want to dive deeper, let me know:
Are you looking for a fully decentralized/on-chain experience or a regulated US-based platform?
What specific categories (e.g., politics, crypto pricing, pop culture) do you plan to trade in most?
Azuro is more of a decentralized prediction/betting protocol than a single prediction-market website. It uses smart contracts, permissionless apps, and an AMM/liquidity-pool model across EVM chains. Its ecosystem currently emphasizes sports but is expanding into other prediction markets.
So, for a broad spectrum of event categories, Polymarket fits your description more closely; for protocol-level decentralization and multiple front ends, Azuro is worth examining. Neither should be treated as an investment recommendation, and crypto wagering can result in losing the entire amount wagered.
Crypto-Native & Liquid: It runs on the Polygon network, letting users trade using stablecoins (like USDC) with deep market liquidity and real-time odds updates reflecting crowd-sourced probabilities.[](https://polymarket.com/predictions/pop-culture)
User Experience: It features a clean, highly scannable interface where every market clearly publishes its resolution sources and criteria.[](https://polymarket.com/crypto)
Other Noteworthy Decentralized Alternatives
If you want to explore alternatives outside of Polymarket's ecosystem, consider:
Azuro Protocol: A decentralized betting and prediction infrastructure layer (spanning Polygon and Base) that allows developers to spin up custom prediction and forecasting applications.[](https://www.alchemy.com/dapps/best/web3-prediction-markets)
Crypto.com : Offers select pop-culture and entertainment event contracts with lower fee structures for users already integrated into their ecosystem.[](https://deadspin.com/prediction-markets/culture/)
If you'd like, let me know:
Which specific award show or event you are looking to trade on
Whether you prefer a regulated US platform (like Kalshi) or a crypto-based platform (like Polymarket)
I can give you more details on how their contract rules work for that specific event!
Note: Prediction markets operate on dynamic contract pricing (where shares price between 0¢ and $1 based on implied probability and payout $1 if correct), which differs structurally from traditional fixed-odds bookmaking. [](https://polymarket.com/pop-culture)
Yes. If by “trade” you mean buy/sell positions as the market price moves, rather than simply placing a fixed-odds bet, the main places to look are prediction/event markets and some betting exchanges.
Entertainment markets available now
Kalshi — Probably the clearest U.S. option. Its Culture category includes Oscars, Emmys/TV, music, movie ratings, TV charts, celebrity events, and reality TV. For example, Kalshi currently lists markets on Oscar winners and Dancing with the Stars outcomes.
Polymarket — Has a substantial Pop Culture section covering awards, movies, celebrities and reality TV. Its Reality TV markets include things such as Bachelorette winners and episode outcomes, with shares continuously repriced as traders buy and sell.
Betting exchanges such as Betfair Exchange — In jurisdictions where available, these can offer conventional exchange-style markets on Oscars, Eurovision, reality-TV winners and other entertainment events, allowing back/lay trading rather than merely taking bookmaker odds.
The types of markets to search for
If you're specifically interested in winners of upcoming events, look for:
Entertainment area
Typical markets
🏆 Awards
Oscar/Emmy/Grammy/Golden Globe winner
📺 Reality TV
Season winner, elimination, placement
🎵 Music
Grammy winner, chart #1, album performance
🎬 Movies
Award winner, box-office thresholds, critic scores
📺 Television
Show rankings, awards, streaming-chart positions
👤 Celebrity
Specific yes/no future events
Kalshi explicitly lists awards shows, Billboard chart outcomes and Rotten Tomatoes markets, while Polymarket currently has Awards, Movies, Celebrities and Reality TV under Pop Culture.
For someone in the U.S., I'd start with Kalshi and then compare it with Polymarket, paying particular attention to whether the specific contract is available in your jurisdiction, liquidity, fees/spreads, and the exact resolution rules. Prediction-market regulation and availability are changing quickly in the U.S.
If you tell me which entertainment events you're interested in (Oscars, Grammys, reality TV, Eurovision, etc.), I can search the current markets and show you which platforms have the most liquid winner markets right now.
OG.com – Known for a clean, streamlined user interface tailored specifically toward users who might be newer to prediction markets and want a less cluttered experience when looking at entertainment and award odds.[](https://www.rotowire.com/prediction-markets/pop-culture)
Robinhood Predictions – Integrates event-based prediction markets into the familiar Robinhood investing framework, lowering the barrier to entry for everyday retail investors looking to dabble in cultural and award outcomes.[](https://www.rotowire.com/prediction-markets/pop-culture)
FanDuel Predicts – Leverages a major mainstream brand and massive legacy sports-betting infrastructure to offer targeted pop culture and award show prediction markets.[](https://www.rotowire.com/prediction-markets/pop-culture)
Are you looking for a platform that operates on crypto/USDC (like Polymarket), or do you prefer a regulated U.S. financial exchange (like Kalshi)? Let me know and I can help narrow down the best fit.
Kalshi — especially strong for Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, Billboard, box office and other culture markets.
Polymarket Awards — currently has Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and broader celebrity/entertainment markets.
DraftKings Predictions — offers culture/award-show event contracts, though its entertainment selection is currently narrower.
FanDuel Predicts — another U.S. event-contract platform worth checking for entertainment markets.
Best starting points: Kalshi for depth/liquidity; Polymarket for broader, more niche entertainment markets. Availability and legality vary by jurisdiction.
Bet365 – Known internationally for having a robust selection of novelty, pop-culture, and TV/movie award odds, though availability depends heavily on whether you are accessing their platform from a legal international or regional market.
If you let me know what state or country you are located in , I can give you the exact platform legally available to place your Best Picture wager.
Kalshi has a dedicated 2027 Oscar Best Picture winner market, with contracts for individual films and published settlement rules. Its market page is a useful place to compare prices and implied odds.
A strong alternative for browsing entertainment markets. It has a dedicated Oscars section covering Best Picture, nominations, acting awards and other categories.
For a straightforward Oscar wager: Compare Kalshi's market price and settlement rules first.
For a wider pop-culture selection: Browse Polymarket's Oscars and entertainment categories.
For the best potential value: Compare the implied odds on both platforms before placing a trade.
One important caveat: access and legality can vary by state, and prediction-market regulation is currently being contested in U.S. courts. Check your eligibility in Indiana before depositing money.
One question: Are you looking to place a real-money bet in Indiana, or are you mainly interested in comparing the odds and finding the best value?
Shake is probably the closest match if you simply want to create a market, invite specific people, and have nobody else participate. Its FAQ explicitly says you can create a private market and share an invite link; only invited people can see or join it. It currently uses virtual test credits rather than cash.
Seer Pressure is another very direct fit. It describes itself as a private, invite-only prediction pool where only invited participants can see and trade, with customizable play-money currencies.
ForecastRooms is more oriented toward organizations. It provides private prediction markets for companies, classrooms, workshops, and groups, with role-based access controls and virtual points.
P0 (Priority Zero) is aimed at businesses running internal prediction markets—for example, forecasting product launches, sales targets, or project delivery. It advertises private markets, organizational controls, dashboards, and integrations with Slack, Linear, Jira, and Notion.
The mainstream exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket aren't really designed for an organizer saying, “I want a $10,000 prediction pool that only my invited employees/customers/friends can trade.” They operate as broader exchanges, and private-market functionality isn't their normal product model. The current regulatory environment also matters considerably for anything involving real-money event contracts.
Instead, you'd likely want a white-label prediction-market provider that gives you control over users and market access.
Some current providers advertising this kind of infrastructure include:
Plaee — white-label prediction-market infrastructure with user management, funding, liquidity, and customizable economics.
Shift Markets — white-label prediction markets with control over user groups, market exposure, liquidity, KYC, and branding.
Vinfotech — full prediction-market infrastructure including order books/AMMs, wallets, KYC, and an operator console.
Lumberworks — explicitly advertises a private invite system as part of its prediction-market infrastructure.
My recommendation
If your goal is:
“I want to make a prediction market for 10–100 invited people, and I don't want the general public to see or participate.”
I'd divide the options this way:
Just for a private group → Shake or Seer Pressure.
For an organization/team → ForecastRooms or P0.
For a commercial product where participants wager real money → white-label infrastructure + appropriate legal/regulatory setup.
If you tell me (1) approximate number of participants, (2) whether you need real money, (3) whether participants should be able to buy/sell positions rather than simply vote, and (4) your country/state, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 platforms that actually fit, including pricing and access-control capabilities.
Manifold : Offers private groups feature sets where you can create a dedicated space where only invited users are allowed to see, create, and bet in private markets using their play-money system (Mana). It is ideal for casual groups, communities, or internal company tests.[](https://manifold.markets/SG/how-many-private-groups-will-be-cre)
Metaculus : Offers customized private forecasting tournaments and services tailored for organizations, enterprises, and research groups. They allow you to set up restricted-access environments to aggregate expert or internal team insights on specific future metrics.[](https://www.metaculus.com/services/tournaments/)
Custom/Open-Source Solutions : If you want complete operational control, data ownership, and zero reliance on a third-party consumer site, you can deploy open-source or custom prediction market engines (such as those running on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule - LMSR) restricted behind an authentication wall (SSO or password-protected invite links).[](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/shubhjain2007_project-110-a-private-prediction-market-activity-7432163037958279168-VtMI)
To help narrow down the best path, could you tell me:
Are you looking to use play money / points or real money?
Is this for an enterprise/workplace team or a casual group of friends?
Polymarket has a very broad market selection and a particularly prominent interface for seeing what the market thinks about current events. Its markets span politics, economics, sports, crypto, technology, culture, and more.
However, there's an important U.S. distinction: Polymarket.com currently blocks trading from the U.S. and directs U.S. users to Polymarket.us.
Rather than declaring one universally "best," I'd frame it this way:
If you care most about…
Platform to investigate
Simplicity and conventional trading
Kalshi
Broad/global market selection
Polymarket
Avoiding crypto complexity
Kalshi
Exploring what prediction markets can look like
Polymarket
Starting with small amounts and learning
Either, after checking current eligibility/fees
One important caveat: prediction-market rules are changing rapidly in the U.S. Recent court decisions have produced conflicting views about whether states can regulate certain event contracts, so availability can depend on both the platform and your state.
If you're completely new, I'd start by learning how a $0.65 contract actually works, how the implied probability is calculated, and how fees affect your expected return before putting meaningful money in.
Novig : Ideal if your primary focus is sports-oriented prediction markets and you prefer a cleaner, dedicated layout free from non-sports distractions.[]()
If you'd like, let me know:
Are you located inside or outside the U.S.?
Do you prefer funding an account with USD via bank/card or using crypto?
I can help you set up your first steps on the right platform.
Limitless Exchange : A specialized base/on-chain prediction market designed specifically for short-term crypto narrative tracking, daily gas/transaction fee pools, and emerging DeFi protocol metrics.
Kalshi : Best if you require a fully CFTC-regulated, fiat-based U.S. venue, though its focus leans more toward macroeconomic indicators, broad index prices, and official regulatory decisions rather than niche protocol metrics.
If you'd like, I can set up a task to monitor new custom markets or volume spikes for specific protocol bets on these platforms as they emerge.
Liquidity: The premier federally regulated (CFTC-regulated) option in the United States. It boasts immense liquidity for U.S.-centric macroeconomics, politics, and increasingly deep pools for major U.S. sports leagues.
Fees: Uses a maker-taker model. Taker fees on mid-probability (50\cent ) contracts can peak around 1.75\cent per contract and scale down as probabilities approach 0% or 100%.
Access/Requirements: Fully legal and accessible for U.S. residents, allowing standard fiat currency (USD via bank transfer/ACH) without needing a crypto wallet.
Liquidity : The leading crypto-native decentralized prediction market, boasting multi-billion-dollar volumes globally across politics, macroeconomics, and pop culture.
Transaction Costs : Utilizes a probability-based taker fee formula (peaking around 0.75 to 1.75 per 100 shares at the 50/50 price point), with 0 maker fees and liquidity provider rebates.
Liquidity : The premier CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, carrying massive institutional and retail volume, especially dominating U.S. economic indicators, politics, and major domestic events.
Transaction Costs : Uses a maker-taker model where limit orders (makers) pay lower fees. Taker fees scale based on probability, maxing out at roughly 1.75¢ per contract for 50/50 priced outcomes and dropping lower as contracts approach 0% or 100%.
If your two priorities are top-tier liquidity and minimal transaction costs, I’d start with Polymarket and Kalshi. They’re the strongest places to begin comparing, but the best choice depends on whether you trade U.S. markets, how large your orders are, and whether you typically use market orders or resting limit orders.
One important distinction: the platform with the highest reported trading volume isn't necessarily the cheapest to trade on. Order-book depth, bid–ask spreads, execution fees, and slippage determine your actual cost. Recent market comparisons put Polymarket ahead on global liquidity and fee flexibility, while Kalshi is a leading option for U.S.-accessible, regulated event contracts.
Best prediction market platforms to compare
1. Polymarket
(Best for global liquidity and low costs)
Polymarket has deep books on major political and cultural events, plus a broad international market selection. Its fee structure rewards passive liquidity providers.
Fees: Makers pay 0%; taker fees apply to certain categories, while geopolitical and world-event markets are fee-free.
Liquidity: Excellent on major headline markets; less consistent on niche questions.
Watch out: Crypto funding, spreads, and eligibility restrictions can affect your total cost.
Kalshi is a strong all-round option for U.S. users who want regulated event contracts, conventional funding methods, and substantial liquidity in popular markets.
Fees: Vary by contract, market, and order type; check the current schedule before trading.
Liquidity: Particularly competitive in U.S. politics, macroeconomic releases, and weather.
Watch out: Some markets charge fees on resting orders, and spreads can be wide on less popular contracts.
For larger orders, depth at several price levels matters more than headline volume. A platform with nominally zero fees can still be more expensive if its execution price is worse.
Let's narrow it down to your trading style
Three quick details will help me rank the best venues for your actual costs and liquidity needs.
